Iranian army against Saudi Arabia. Why do Saudi Arabia and Iran compete and quarrel? Financing of international terrorism

"Islam against communism" and Russia

In the 1970s, the “oil empire” became a serious enemy of the Soviet Union. Since 1975 in think tanks The United States, Great Britain and Saudi Arabia have developed an “Islam against communism” program. After the collapse of the USSR, this program was continued, already as “Islam against the Russians.” This program provided support and financing for various radical, underground Islamist organizations in Muslim-populated regions of the USSR (Russia). They were going to “rock” the USSR primarily through Central Asia. It should be noted that this program was approved even before its introduction Soviet troops to Afghanistan, that is, it was not a response to the actions of the USSR.

Western analysts, including Henry Kissinger, believed that Soviet Union it is most vulnerable from the southern direction. It was necessary to outrage Central Asia (Turkestan) by creating neo-Basmachism. On the basis of Islam, fan the anti-Russian fire in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, throw sparks of the flame to the Caucasus and Bashkiria, Tataria. The support of the West and Saudi Arabia was supposed to be the already decaying nomenklatura of the Central Asian republics, thinking about “independence” and legalizing the stolen goods. By 1978, through the efforts of the Saudis, underground Islamist cells emerged in some regions of the USSR. In Soviet Tajikistan, the founder of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan was Said Abdullo Nuri. Back in the mid-70s, he created a youth organization of Islamists. The Wahhabist controversy, sparked in the 1970s, would lead to a tacit alliance of radical Muslim ideologues and party functionaries profiting from the black market (including the nascent drug market) and would result in the massacre and expulsion of Russians from the republic, and then a bloody civil war in Tajikistan. Civil war in Tajikistan 1992-1997. will be so terrible that the Muslims themselves will push the radicals out into Afghanistan and the Pamirs. But the virus of Wahhabism can already spread throughout Central Asia and the Caucasus.

However, in full force The radicals were able to turn around only after the collapse of the USSR, when the ideology of radical Islam (Wahhabism) created a strong base not only in Central Asia, but also strengthened in the North Caucasus, manifested itself in Moscow, Tataria, Bashkiria and even Siberia. Currently, radical Islam has a strong foothold in the Central Asian republics and is waiting in the wings when the post-Soviet, secular regimes finally become decrepit and it is possible to take power.

In modern Russia, the poison of Wahhabism will cause a second Chechen war(in the first, political and ethnic factors, rather than religious ones, played a major role), which lasted until 2009 (the active phase was completed in 2000). Many Chechen fighters will undergo training under the guidance of Saudi specialists and will absorb the ideology of “pure Islam.” In Chechnya, the infection was suppressed almost completely, but the virus affected the neighboring North Caucasus republics and, in fact, an underground war continues in the region to this day. It is worth noting that it was caused and continues not only because of external support, but also because of the ideological emptiness of the modern Russian Federation. Many young people, not only representatives of ethnic groups that have converted to Islam, but also ethnic Russians, accept the norms of Islam and, in search of social justice, embark on the path of fighting the “infidels.” This is a very dangerous situation. Russian Federation is approaching the border when it will be possible to implement the “Syrian” (or “Yugoslav”) scenario. The stupid (or criminal, if we recall Stalin’s famous – “Are you a fool or an enemy?!” migration policy of the Russian authorities only adds fuel to this fire.

Saudi Arabia played a huge role in the Afghan conflict. In 1981, CIA chief William Joseph Casey arrived in Saudi Arabia. He held negotiations with the chief of royal intelligence, Prince Turki al-Faisi, a friend of Vice President George H. W. Bush under Ronald Reagan (1981-1989). American oil tycoon and former head CIA (1976 - 1977) Bush began a relationship with an Arab sheikh back in the 70s. The Americans focused on the military-strategic position of Saudi Arabia. With enormous wealth, which aroused the natural interest of its neighbors, the state was practically defenseless militarily. Looming from the east was Iran, where the Islamic Revolution took place in 1979. Ayatollah Khomeini considered the Saudis to be traitors to the cause of Islam who had made contact with the "infidel" Americans. The Iranians planned to carry out an Islamic revolution in Saudi Arabia, establishing a regime allied to them. In the south of the Arabian Peninsula in 1970, a pro-Soviet People's Party was created Democratic Republic Yemen. The PDRY was not averse to taking away part of their territory from the Saudis. Riyadh viewed the appearance of Russian troops in Afghanistan with great caution; in the future, the USSR could reach the Persian Gulf. In addition, Moscow had strong positions in Syria and the PDRY.

Casey offered guarantees of military protection from the United States and access to the advanced military technology of the Western world. In return, the Saudis were to join the United States in its fight against the Soviet Union, sponsoring the mujahideen in Afghanistan and supporting the ideas of radical Islam on Soviet territory. In addition, Riyadh was supposed to deal an economic blow to the USSR by increasing oil production and driving down oil prices. The price of gas is usually linked to oil prices, so Moscow’s gas plans were also dealt a blow. Casey found complete understanding with Turki. First of all, the Saudis supported the plan to finance Afghan gangs. Joint payments by Washington and Riyadh to the Afghan Mujahideen amounted to approximately $3.5 billion. The United States gave the green light for the supply of the latest weapons to Saudi Arabia and promised to provide immediate assistance with the Rapid Reaction Force in the event of an external threat.

Oil prices turned out to be somewhat more difficult, since income depended on them absolute monarchy. The Saudis initially promised only not to succumb to the demands of the organization of oil exporting countries on the issue of increasing oil prices. But after the Americans, despite Israeli resistance, resolved the issue, Riyadh softened its position on the oil issue. Casey visited Riyadh again and met with Crown Prince Fahd. Fahd bin Abdulaziz Al Saud would rule the kingdom from 1982 to 2005. Casey argued that the fall in oil prices would not affect the kingdom. The US economy will benefit from the fall in prices for “black gold”, this will be reflected in American securities, and the Arabian sheikhs will benefit accordingly. Besides, low prices for oil will reduce the needs of Europeans, who began to buy natural gas from the USSR, while maintaining their focus on the countries of the Middle East. Fahd and Casey hit it off.

However, it was only in 1985 that the Saudis were finally persuaded. Riyadh had long doubted the need for this step; money outweighed strategic interests. Throughout 1984, the Reagan administration tried to persuade the kingdom to increase oil production. Riyadh negotiated with the British to stabilize oil prices at $29 per barrel and reduce production. In September 1984, Casey went to Riyadh again, but was unable to convince the king. The Saudis waited. In February 1985, Fahd visited Washington. American President Reagan assured the monarch that the United States would ensure the security of the kingdom. However, Fahd was politely explained that he had to pay for security - to make the “black gold” cheaper. By 1980, the price of oil on the world market peaked at US$35 per barrel. The decline in oil prices dealt a blow to the main enemies of Saudi Arabia - the USSR, Iran and Libya. No ultimatums were given to Fahd, but the signal was convincing. Riyadh has made the final decision. Only the United States could provide security for the royal dynasty. The kingdom was in a hostile environment. South Yemen openly laid claim to the oil-bearing areas of Arabia. The Soviet Union stood behind the Syrians and Yemenis. The Iranian revolutionary authorities were not allies of the Union, but they also hated the Saudis. Only the long and bloody Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988. prevented Tehran from taking Saudi Arabia more seriously. Iraq was also not an ally of Saudi Arabia, but had close contacts with the United States. In addition to the Iranians and Syrians, the Libyans also played their game in Saudi Arabia.

The Saud clan felt in great danger. Riyadh had to make huge cash injections into the Afghan war, lend to Iraq in its war with Iran, to counter the Syrians and Libyans. A lot of money was spent on the purchase of weapons. Fear of the Saudis helped the Americans.

In August 1985, the USSR suffered two economic blows. Washington devalued the dollar by 25%. The dollar was devalued, and nominal income of the American budget increased. The US has eased its national debt. American goods have become cheaper and more competitive. The USSR's real income from the sale of energy resources fell, since contracts for the supply of oil and gas abroad were calculated in dollars. The Saudis were warned about the depreciation of the dollar. In August, Saudi Arabia sharply increased oil production: from 2 million barrels per day to 6, and then 9 million. Oil prices collapsed from 30 to 12 dollars per day in six months. In 1986, the price dropped to $10 per barrel or lower. Natural gas prices have also gone down. The USSR economy, heavily dependent on energy exports during the Brezhnev era, experienced a serious shock. The trade surplus of the Soviet economy was eliminated: the USSR now spent more than it earned. Moscow began to sell off its gold reserves. The situation for the USSR was aggravated by the change of power - Gorbachev and his team of traitors came to power.

It must be said that the collapse in oil prices hit hard not only the USSR, but also the entire oil-producing world. Nigeria, Mexico and Venezuela were on the verge of bankruptcy, the “great oil crash” halved the income of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Libya, Iraq, Iran and Indonesia. After 1985, Saudi Arabia fell into a long socio-economic crisis that lasted until the oil boom of the early 2000s. The golden days of the 1970s are gone. True, the crisis did not affect the Saudi leadership, which acted contrary national interests. Saudi ruling dynasty retained personal assets invested in financial system U.S.A.

King Fahd Al Saud

Financing international terrorism

Saudi Arabia's role was not limited to financing Afghan Mujahideen and the “energy war” against the USSR. Riyadh was allowed to play an important role in financing the cultivation of a system of international terrorism that was to play an important role in establishing the New World Order. Saudi Arabia has become a true epicenter of terrorist financing. Since the late 1980s, after the Afghan War and the Iran-Iraq War, Saudi Arabia allegedly charities became the main sources of funding for jihadists. Saudi Arabian money was used to create and maintain dozens of training camps in various countries around the world, purchase weapons, equipment and recruit militants. The famous Al-Qaeda and dozens of others terrorist organizations were raised with Saudi money. The intelligence services of the United States and Great Britain worked in close conjunction with Arabian intelligence, implementing a global plan to discredit Islam and prepare the ground for the start of a new world war. Billions of Saudi dollars have gone into the pockets of Americans with ties to Arabia through contracts, grants and salaries.

The intelligence services of the United States and Saudi Arabia carried out a magnificent operation on September 11, 2001. She allowed the US to delay the start economic crisis and launch the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, which had long term goal– complete destabilization of the Near and Middle East. Chaos in the East should strike Europe, Russia, China and India and lead to global war. The Islamic world must play the role of “Hitler” in the new world war.

The Saudi-Iranian break in relations is the most serious conflict between the leaders of the Islamic world in 30 years. RBC figured out how it arose, whether it can develop into a war, how it threatens negotiations on Syria and oil prices

Shia protesters hold portraits of executed preacher Nimr al-Nimr, Baghdad, Iraq, January 4, 2016 (Photo: AP)

On January 3, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir announced a breakup diplomatic relations with Iran over an attack on the kingdom’s diplomatic missions after the execution of Shiite preacher Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia. Following Riyadh, similar decisions were made by Bahrain and Sudan. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has downgraded its mutual diplomatic representation with Iran to the level of charge d'affaires. On January 5, Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran. What threatens the escalation of the conflict between the two largest powers in the Middle East?

Difficult relationships

Relations between predominantly Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia long years remain tense due to disagreements on a variety of issues - interpretation of Islam, oil export policies, relations with the United States and the West. Each country is considered an informal leader in its own segment of the Islamic world - Iran in the Shia, Saudi Arabia in the Sunni, and both have historically fought among themselves for leadership in the entire Muslim community.

Relations between the countries deteriorated significantly after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which abolished the monarchy in Iran and returned the disgraced Ayatollah Khomeini , after which Iran actually became a theocratic state. The sharply anti-American orientation of the revolution also made the country natural opponents: Saudi Arabia is traditionally the main ally of the United States in the Islamic world. The revolution challenged Saudi Arabia's leadership in the Islamic world and also alarmed the Sunni kingdom and other Gulf countries with significant Shiite populations, whose authorities were wary of exporting the Islamic revolution.

Who is causing the conflict?

Nimr al-Nimr was born in 1959 in the east of Saudi Arabia, where the country's Shiite population is concentrated, studied for about ten years in the holy Shiite city of Qom (Iran), then in Syria, and became a popular preacher among Shiite youth. Al-Nimr criticized the Saudi Arabian government, advocated free elections and other reforms, as well as against the oppression of Shiites. He argued that the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia, where there is a large Shiite population, should secede from the kingdom if discrimination against Shiites continues. In 2008, American diplomats who met with him called the sheikh the second most important Shiite figure in the country.

In 2004 and 2006, Nimr al-Nimr was briefly arrested. His latest arrest during Shiite demonstrations in July 2012 was played by a video of al-Nimr’s speech on social networks on the occasion of the death of the kingdom’s Interior Minister, Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, who had been in charge of the religious police since 1975. “He will be devoured by worms, while he himself will suffer hellish torment in his grave,” al-Nimr said in the video.

Sentenced to death for “inciting hatred and threatening national unity.” The sheikh was accused of calling for intervention foreign countries in the affairs of Saudi Arabia, the use of weapons against law enforcement forces and disobedience to authorities. Executed on January 2, 2016.​

But Iran did not officially support Islamic revolutions in other countries, and then a large-scale conflict between the two states was avoided. It began only in 1988, after demonstrators attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran, which resulted in the death of one diplomat. The reason for the conflict was the death in 1987 of about 400 Iranian pilgrims who arrived in the kingdom for the Hajj and died in clashes with local police. That was the first time the countries broke off diplomatic relations.

Since then, both countries have constantly put forward mutual claims. Riyadh accuses Tehran of supporting the existing Shiite opposition in the country, seeking to extend its influence to Iraq, the Levant and other areas of the Middle East, as well as attempting to destabilize the region by creating nuclear weapons. Iran, in turn, accuses Saudi Arabia of violating the rights of the Shiite minority.

The latest event to strain Iranian-Saudi relations was the agreement on nuclear program Iran, which, if sanctions are lifted from the Islamic Republic, will give Tehran more financial and political opportunities to defend its interests in the region.

In conflicts in the Middle East, both countries have always supported polar factions, and the current middle east conflict not an exception. In the Syrian civil war, Iran is President Bashar al-Assad's main Middle Eastern ally, and Saudi Arabia is the main sponsor of the Syrian armed opposition. In the fight against the Islamic State (banned in Russia), both countries are also involved in different coalitions - Saudi Arabia in the West, led by its ally the United States, and Iran in a coalition with Iraq and Russia.

Risks of escalation

“The situation that has arisen as a result of the confrontation between the two most influential countries in the region is unpredictable. The hybrid war [in Yemen] is already underway. It could spiral out of control in the coming weeks or months,” Fawaz Jerdes, a Middle East specialist at the London School of Economics, told CNN. Experts suggest that Saudi Arabia and Iran will not agree to an open military confrontation in the near future, but local conflicts in the Middle East, almost all of which involve both countries, will escalate. “Since 1979, both states have indirectly entered into a number of local military conflicts throughout the Middle East and often exchanged threats and insults. But in the end, they always stopped one step away from direct conflict and came to a cold truce,” Karim Sajapour, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment, told Reuters.

The standoff between Riyadh and Tehran threatens to exacerbate the situation in one such local conflict in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia is backing the Sunni government in the war against Shiite Houthi rebels backed by Iran. Also, Sajapour suggests, Iran could provoke unrest among the Shiites of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. “The tension is rising, and I’m not sure tensions will subside any time soon,” Robert Jordan, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Bloomberg.

One of the most important immediate consequences of the conflict between their patrons may be the breakdown of negotiations between the government of Bashar al-Assad and the moderate Syrian opposition scheduled for early this year. At the end of December 2015, the special envoy Secretary General UN on Syria Stefan de Mistura said that consultations between the warring parties will be held in Geneva on January 25. Officially, the West has no doubt that negotiations will take place even now: “We continue to hope and expect that meetings between the opposition and the Syrian authorities will take place this month,” State Department spokesman John Kirby said on January 4.

Off the record, one Western diplomat told Foreign Policy that “the general background is clearly unfavorable.” Now n representatives of the opposition may take a tougher position towards Assad, Iran and Russia and will be less ready to compromise, the publication’s interlocutor said. In these conditions, much will depend on the diplomatic efforts of the United States and Russia, he added. “The current crisis will significantly complicate the negotiation process,” one US official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Another official quoted by the agency calls the situation “very fragile.”

Saudi Arabia's representative to the UN, Abdullah al-Muallimi, said on January 4 that the Saudi delegation would take part in the negotiations, but did not place high hopes on their success.

Saudi Arabia's conflict with Iran will not affect the situation in Syria

(Video: RBC TV channel)

Oil conflicts will not help

Last year proved that in the current economic situation, rising tensions in the Middle East do not cause an increase in oil prices, as has always been the case: p At the end of 2015, the price of Brent, falling for the third year in a row, decreased by 35%. In conditions of market oversaturation, the Iran-Saudi crisis can only cause a short-term rise in oil prices - by $1-3 per barrel, the agency cites the opinion of John Auers, vice president of the consulting agency Turner, Mason & Co. According to him, the conflict with Iran is unlikely to force Saudi Arabia, the informal leader of OPEC, to change its strategy of excess production in order to put pressure on prices and push Western shale companies out of the market.

Indeed, in the first hours of trading on Monday, news of the severance of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia caused a sharp jump in Brent from $37 to $39 per barrel, despite the decline in stock indices in China, Japan and Europe. But by the end of the trading day immediately after this, oil returned to the $37 level.

The current crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran began on Saturday, January 2, when Riyadh executed an influential Shia cleric, Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr, and in response to this, an angry crowd set fire to the Saudi Arabian embassy in Tehran. After this, the Saudis announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran, and Bahrain and Sudan followed suit. But this week's events were the spark that hit the pile of dry wood. Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a series of proxy wars as they vie with each other for influence in the Middle East. It is not a full-fledged hot war or even a war between Sunnis and Shiites, although both sides are trying to use ideological affiliation as a recruiting tool. It is more of a power struggle, much like the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Why are Saudi Arabia and Iran fighting each other? First, they believe that they are regional powers and that, since the 19th century, global and regional powers must necessarily have their own spheres of influence and rule over smaller states. Secondly, the delicate balance of power between these two states was upset. The first blow came when the Bush administration overthrew the Sunni regime in Iraq, replaced by a pro-Iranian religious Shiite regime that in many important ways moved Iraq away from Saudi Arabia and closer to Iran. The balance of power was further upset by the revolutions in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria that began in 2011. All these events have led to the fact that Riyadh and Tehran have lost the ability to maintain the status quo, and now the advantage may be on either side when the smoke clears. Both sides want to be on top when that day finally comes.

Saudi Arabia and Iran had already severed diplomatic relations - this happened in the 1990s - but they were restored in 1997, after winning the presidential elections in Iran Mohammad Khatami. According to many analysts, the likelihood that these countries will enter into a real war with each other is extremely small. The US provides Saudi Arabia, which produces approximately 11% of the world's oil daily, with a security umbrella and will never accept an Iranian attack. Even if the US were not involved, such a conflict is a highly unlikely scenario. Iran is a country of 78 million people and an experienced army of 500,000, which also has 800,000 volunteers from the Basij paramilitary organization. However, a significant part of its military resources is now tied to Syria. Saudi Arabia is a country of 17-20 million people and an inexperienced army of barely more than 200 thousand troops. According to American military doctrine, it only makes sense to launch an attack if there is a 3 to 1 numerical superiority. In accordance with this principle, Saudi Arabia most likely will not launch military campaign against Iran. Moreover, there is no indication that Iran wants to start a hot war.

These two states do not have common borders. They have almost no navy, and while Saudi Arabia has a pretty strong air force, Iran's air force is a joke. As oil-producing countries, economically, Saudi Arabia and Iran would suffer greatly if the fighting got out of control. Even during the war between Iran and Iraq in 1980-1988, these two states rarely attacked each other's oil production facilities, but the price of oil still fell from 40 to 10 dollars per barrel.

In fact, Iran and Saudi Arabia want to shape their geopolitical security environment by clearly delineating spheres of influence where their rivals are prohibited from entering. Just as the Monroe Doctrine sought to intimidate the Soviet Union over missiles in Cuba in 1962, Saudi Arabia now believes it is under threat from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. The Saudis either misrepresent their motives in Yemen or completely misunderstand their Shia Zaydis (who have no particular affinity for Iran's hierarchical Shiism and who are in some respects even closer to Sunnis). The Saudis view the Houthis as proxies for Iran, although there is no hard evidence that Iran is providing them with any assistance.

Just as last year's political collapse in Yemen and the Houthi takeover of the city of Sanaa prompted Saudi Arabia to intervene, the prospect of the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria has prompted Iran to send aid and troops to Damascus. Tehran also convinced the Lebanese group Hezbollah to side with Assad by preserving the land corridor through which Iran supplies its Lebanese client. Iranian investments in Syria have nothing to do with Syrian Shiism. Iran's allies in Syria are a collection of Christians and Sunni secularists, as well as Alawites, characterized by a Gnostic and mythological approach to religion that is as close to Iranian Shiism as theosophy is to the episcopal system of church government. Moreover, the Alawites who run the Baathist regime in Syria are atheists.

Saudi Arabia saw a good opportunity to topple its Iranian ally in Damascus as the 2011 revolution escalated into civil war, and Riyadh supports conservative Salafi fundamentalists because they have the most reasons to end the Baathist regime and because they have proven to be the best fighters and recruiters. But if Saudi Arabia had the opportunity to find more effective secular allies, it would likely be happy to take it. The main thing for King Salman is to overthrow Assad, because he slaughtered Sunni conservatives in small towns and villages and because it is an ally of Iran.

In addition to the desire to outline exclusive spheres of influence, Iran and Saudi Arabia have problems related to internal security, for which they blame each other. 15% of Saudis are Shiites, and most of of them live in the Eastern Province, constantly being subjected to humiliation and discrimination. This province is of great strategic importance because Saudi oil fields are located there. Saudi Shiites are Arabs, not Iranians, and most of them follow the teachings of the Grand Ayatollah of Iraq Ali Sistani. But Riyadh views any civil disobedience by the kingdom's Shiites as the result of Iranian incitement. Therefore, they considered Sheikh an-Nimr to be an Iranian secret agent. The Saudis did not provide any evidence of his guilt (that he was involved in inciting an uprising or preparing terrorist attacks). They were unable to prove that an-Nimr killed or wanted to kill anyone. However, in the Eastern Province, unrest began among young Saudi Shiites who felt that they were living under the oppression of a kind of religious equivalent of Jim Crow laws, and an-Nimr became the sacrificial lamb that paid for this unrest. Meanwhile, at least 8% of Iranians are Sunni, and Iran fears that Israel or Saudi Arabia could provoke unrest in these communities.

For obvious reasons, foreign observers often view the rivalry as a sectarian struggle until they get to the details and that narrative begins to fall apart. Saudi Arabia has always been characterized by a pragmatic foreign policy, and she does not always take the side of Sunni religious movements. Riyadh supported the nationalist Egyptian officer corps in their coup, which happened thanks to massive popular support from the Sunni religious party"Muslim Brotherhood" in the summer of 2013. Saudi Arabia supports the secular Palestine Liberation Organization, which opposes the Sunni fundamentalist Hamas movement. She supports the nationalists surrounding the president Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Yemen. She supports a secular Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri in Lebanon. The view that Saudi Arabia's foreign policy is always aimed at imposing a fundamentalist religious government on its Sunni neighbors flies in the face of the facts.

It has been some time since most Iranian senior officials took seriously official ideology their country - the ideology of Khomeinism, which is based on the position that Shiite society should be governed by Shiite spiritual leaders. However, Iran has failed to convince other countries in the region of the correctness of its principles. Most Lebanese Shiites are secular-oriented, and if they vote for the pro-Iranian party-group Hezbollah, it is only because, in their opinion, it can protect them from Israel and Sunni radicals. Iraqi religious authorities in the southern Iraqi city of Najaf - the Vatican of Arab Shiism - have rejected Khomeinism and support democratic elections. Most Shiites in Pakistan and the Gulf countries follow the teachings of Ayatollah Sistani, not Iranian leader Ali Khamenei. Iran not only does not have ideologically close states in the region, it quite often also supports the Sunnis. From Iran great relationship with Sunni Tajiks and Uzbeks in Afghanistan, and perhaps even some connections with the Taliban. Although relations between Sunni fundamentalist Hamas and Shiite Iran have been strained over the past three years, for a long time Iran supported him and appears willing to do so again.

There are countries in the Middle East that Saudi Arabia and Iran have to divide. Oman tries to be an honest broker. Iraq has refused to sever ties with Saudi Arabia despite demonstrations against the execution of Sheikh al-Nimr. Dubai supports a good relationship with both countries. Lebanon also tries not to quarrel with Iran and Saudi Arabia, although Lately he leans more towards Iran because Lebanese Shiites, Christians and secular Sunnis fear those Sunni Salafis supported by the Saudis.

Oman and Iraq have announced their willingness to try to reconcile them, and perhaps as a result of the UN Security Council passing a resolution condemning the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, General Mohsen Kazemeini, commander of the Tehran unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, called the attack a “completely organized” move in which, according to him, officials of the Islamic Republic were completely uninvolved. The failure of Iranian authorities to protect the embassy or quickly extinguish the fire led Riyadh to suggest that the attack was carried out by the government.

One of the main problems here is excessive ambition. Neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia are now ready to act as regional powers with exclusive spheres of influence. Saudi Arabia's population is too small for this, and Iran is too poor. Moreover, their ideologies are not very close to their neighbors. This is why the Saudi war in Yemen is turning into a quagmire, and Iran has to ask Russia to come to the aid of Assad in Syria. The wars in Syria and Yemen will end quickly if a formula for sharing power between the warring parties is found so that neither Tehran nor Riyadh are completely excluded from the peace process. Neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia may be happy about the lack of complete victory, but prolonged wars are too disastrous and entail excessive losses.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (left) and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

Iran and Saudi Arabia have long claimed a leading role in the region, but recently relations between the two countries have seriously deteriorated.

Each of them has its own allies and opponents in the Middle East and beyond, what does the balance of power look like?

Saudi Arabia

This kingdom with a predominantly Sunni population is considered the birthplace of Islam, and it is there that the main Muslim shrines are located. In addition, it is also one of the world's leading oil exporters and one of the richest countries peace.

Saudi Arabia fears that Iran could take a dominant position in the Middle East, and in every possible way prevents the growing influence of this Shiite country in the region.

Saudi Arabia's belligerent attitude towards Iran appears to be supported by Donald Trump, who has taken an equally tough position towards Tehran.

The young and increasingly powerful Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is waging war against Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen. The Saudis claim Iran is providing material assistance to the rebels, a charge Tehran denies.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia leads coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen

Saudi Arabia, in turn, supports rebels in Syria and seeks the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, Iran's main ally.

The armed forces of Saudi Arabia are among the most powerful in the region, and Riyadh is among the world's main arms importers. The Saudi army numbers 227 thousand people.

Iran

Iran has become Islamic republic in 1979, when the Shah's regime was overthrown. Political power captured by clerics led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini.

Most of Iran's 80 million people are Shiite Muslims, and the country is considered the leading Shiite power in the region. The final decision in all matters of foreign and domestic policy hosted by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Over the past 10 years, Iran's influence in the region has grown greatly, especially after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq.

Iran supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the war against opposition groups and extremist groups" Islamic State"[banned in Russia and other countries]. Members of the elite Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps participated in offensive operations against Sunni jihadists in Syria and Iraq.

Iran also believes that Saudi Arabia is trying to destabilize the situation in Lebanon, where the government includes the Shiite Hezbollah movement, which is supported by Iran.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is considered a major military, economic and political force in Iran

Iran considers the United States its main enemy.

Iran reportedly has some of the most advanced missile systems in the region. Iran's armed forces number 534 thousand people, including the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

USA

Relations between the United States and Iran remain tense, to put it mildly. There are many reasons for this, including the overthrow of the prime minister of Iran in 1953 with the participation of the CIA, the Islamic revolution in Iran, and the hostage taking at the American embassy in Tehran in the 80s.

In turn, Saudi Arabia has always remained an ally of the United States, although under the Obama administration relations were very strained, given Washington's policy of interaction with Iran.

President Trump has promised to take a tougher stance on Iran and is now threatening to scrap the landmark nuclear deal with Tehran signed under Obama.

At the same time, the royal house of Saudi Arabia and The White house treat each other with great respect.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the support of the United States

Trump and his administration never criticize radical Saudi Islam the way they criticize Iran's ties to terrorism. Saudis were also not included on the list of foreign nationals subject to the controversial US travel ban.

Donald Trump made his first trip as president to the Middle East, where he met with Saudi and Israeli leaders who share a desire to prevent Iran from growing influence in the region.

Saudi Arabia is also the main buyer of American weapons.

Russia

Russia is the only one that manages to remain an ally of both Saudi Arabia and Iran. It has close economic ties with each of these countries, and it also sells weapons to both countries.

Russia did not take either side in the current dispute between Tehran and Riyadh, making it clear that it was ready to act as a mediator.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption According to Vladimir Putin, the Syrian army, with the support of Russian aviation, has already liberated more than 90% of the country from militants

Russia's involvement in Middle Eastern affairs has continued since cold war, when the Soviet Union supplied Syria with weapons and trained its officers.

Moscow's influence on Syria and the region as a whole has noticeably weakened since the collapse of the USSR, but recently the Kremlin has been carefully increasing it.

Air support provided to the Syrian army Russian aviation, helped turn the tide Syrian war in favor of the Assad regime and the pro-Iranian fighters who fought on its side.

Türkiye

Turkey deftly balances between Iran and Saudi Arabia, while the military and political situation in the Middle East is rapidly changing.

Ankara began to show more interest in the situation in the region after the Justice and Development Party, which is often called Islamist, came to power in 2002.

Sunni-majority Turkey has developed close ties with Saudi Arabia based on religious kinship and shared opposition to the Syrian government.

Despite deep mistrust of Iran, Turkey relatively recently entered into an alliance with it against the growing influence of the Kurds in the region, which both countries see as a threat.

Illustration copyright ADEM ALTAN Image caption The Turkish President decided to support Qatar in its confrontation with Saudi Arabia

Israel

Israel, formed in 1948, of all Arab countries has established diplomatic relations only with Egypt and Jordan.

Iran and Israel are considered irreconcilable enemies. Iran denies Israel's right to exist and calls for the destruction of the state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has always actively called on the international community to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, as well as to cancel the nuclear deal with Tehran in order to curb its “aggressive” policies in the region.

According to Netanyahu, cooperation has even been established with a number of Arab countries in order to prevent the growth of Iran's influence in the region. In turn, Saudi Arabia denied reports that appeared in the Israeli media that in September one of the Saudi princes secretly came to negotiate with Israel.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump for "bravely speaking out against the Iranian terrorist regime."

Egypt

Egypt often played key role in Middle East politics, and has historically enjoyed friendlier relations with Saudi Arabia than with Iran, especially since the Islamic Revolution.

The Saudis also supported the Egyptian army when it ousted Islamist President Mohamed Morsi from power in 2013.

However, Egypt has had cases of rapprochement with Iran. For example, Tehran sponsored an oil deal between Egypt and Iraq after the Saudi Arabian company Aramco stopped supplying oil to Egypt in October 2016.

Following increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi called for “avoiding an escalation of tensions in the region, but not at the expense of security and stability in the region.” Persian Gulf".

Illustration copyright DON EMMERT Image caption "The national security of the Gulf countries is National security Egypt. I believe in the wise and firm leadership of Saudi Arabia," the Egyptian President said.

Syria

The government of President Bashar al-Assad has firmly taken Iran's side in the confrontation with Saudi Arabia.

Iran has always supported the Syrian leadership and provided assistance to the Syrian army in the fight against rebels and jihadists.

Iran sees Assad, who belongs to the Alawite branch of Shiism, as its closest Arab ally. Syria is also the main transit point for Iranian weapons to the Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Thousands of Hezbollah fighters are fighting on the Syrian side government troops. According to experts, thanks to the level of training and weapons, this group can already be considered a full-fledged army rather than a militia.

Syrian authorities also often accuse Saudi Arabia of pursuing subversive policies in the Middle East.

Illustration copyright STRINGER Image caption Syrian troops are slowly but surely retaking territory from IS militants

Lebanon

Lebanon's position in the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia can be called ambivalent.

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who announced his resignation from Saudi Arabia a few days ago, has close ties with the Saudis and supports them in the confrontation with Iran.

On the other hand, the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah is an ally of Iran and enjoys its constant and significant support. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah often attacks the Saudi authorities.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption Prime Minister Saad Hariri supported the Saudis, but there are also staunch Iranian supporters in Lebanon

Gulf States

In the past, Gulf states such as Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have had closer relations with Saudi Arabia.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia demands from Qatar great effort in the fight against extremism and terrorism

However, Qatar's ties with Saudi Arabia have weakened noticeably after Qatar refused to comply with Riyadh's demand at the beginning of the year and break off relations with Tehran.

After Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain declared a blockade of Qatar in July, Iran sent five planeloads of food there to help cope with the shortage.

In August, Qatar and Iran restored full diplomatic relations, interrupted after attacks on two Saudi Arabian diplomatic missions in Iran.

At the same time, Bahrain and Kuwait continue to lean towards Saudi Arabia.

The main political and military posts in Bahrain are held by members of the Sunni royal family, while 70% of the country's population are Shiites.

Bahrain has repeatedly accused Iran of preparing “terrorist cells” that operate in the country with the aim of preparing to overthrow the government. He also accuses the Shiite opposition of maintaining ties to Iran.

In October, Bahraini authorities said that “their country is suffering the most from the expansionist policies of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards.”

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption The Emir of Kuwait offered to become mediators in negotiations between Doha and Riyadh

Although Kuwait is not participating in the blockade of Qatar, its authorities have abandoned their alliance with Iran and are now siding with Saudi Arabia.

In February, Kuwait called for improved Arab-Iranian relations and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited the country for the first time since the 2013 elections.

However, due to the crisis in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait expelled 15 Iranian diplomats from the country and closed Iran's military, cultural and trade mission.

Another escalation of the situation between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been noted in the Persian Gulf. In addition, Riyadh is ready to open a “second front” after the Shiite Houthis launched a missile at Saudi Arabia from Yemen. The Saudis regarded this as an act of war. They warned that Lebanon would also be seen as a state that declared war on Saudi Arabia.

"Russia must help Saudi Arabia improve"

Riyadh threatens neighbors

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated back in January 2016, when the execution by the Saudis of a Shiite preacher and the subsequent defeat of the Saudi Arabian diplomatic mission in Iran led to a severance of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Then there was a lull. And now, a year and a half later, there is another wave of bellicose statements by Tehran and Riyadh addressed to each other.

On November 6, Saudi Minister of State Samer Al-Sabhan said that Riyadh would consider Lebanon “as a state that declares war on Saudi Arabia.” As Al Arabiya TV channel reports, the minister accused Beirut of condoning the “extremist actions” of the Shiite pro-Iranian movement Hezbollah.

Saudi Arabia's accusations against Lebanon came after the country's Prime Minister Saad Hariri arrived in Riyadh on November 4, where he unexpectedly announced his resignation. He accused Hezbollah and Iran of carrying out hostile activities against Saudi Arabia from Lebanese territory. Hariri also announced that an assassination attempt was being prepared on him, which suggests that he will not return to Lebanon.

Also on November 4, Riyadh was subjected to a rocket attack from neighboring Yemen: local Houthi rebels receiving military assistance from Iran, launched a missile with a range of 750 kilometers at a target in Saudi Arabia. Saudi air defense forces shot down the missile: there were no casualties or destruction.

Nevertheless, Riyadh saw in this missile strike a signal from Tehran of its readiness to start a missile war against Saudi Arabia at the hands of the Houthis. The Saudi Ministry of Defense described the missile strike from Yemen as "an outrageous act of military aggression by Iran, which may be considered in the future as an act of war against Saudi Arabia."

Saudi Arabia declared its right to self-defense and to respond to Iran. "This hostile act by Iran confirms legal right kingdom to defend its territory and its people in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter (on the right of self-defense)," the Saudi generals said in a statement.

As experts note, in the event of a war with Iran, Riyadh will be forced to simultaneously conduct military operations with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. So this war could completely deplete Saudi Arabia's resources.

The Iran-Iraq conflict of 1980-1988 showed that it is very easy to start a war, but very difficult to get out of it. Tehran and Baghdad exchanged bellicose statements for eight years, and each side lost up to one million of its troops on the battlefields.

Arrests in the royal family

The current worsening of relations between Riyadh and Tehran coincides with a deep crisis within the royal family of Saudi Arabia. As you know, in June, King Salman of Saudi Arabia appointed his 31-year-old son Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince. He replaced in this post cousin, who is 26 years older than him.

And at the end of last week, apparently, the Crown Prince began a “cleansing” within the royal family, getting rid of disloyal relatives. On the night of November 5, eleven princes, four current ministers and dozens of former ministers were arrested. Among those arrested was al-Waleed bin Talal, one of richest people planets.

The arrest of members of the royal family is most likely related to corruption. Recently, King Salman created an anti-corruption committee, the head of which was appointed Prince Mohammed.

Thus, the deterioration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran occurs against the backdrop of a behind-the-scenes struggle for power in Riyadh. There is a political crisis in the monarchical dynasty, and this factor could weaken Saudi Arabia’s position in the Persian Gulf.

Iran, on the contrary, will strengthen its positions around the borders of Saudi Arabia. It's about about Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. In all four of these countries, Iran is strengthening its position in order to better prepare for a possible future war with Saudi Arabia.