Democratic forces of Syria. Raqqa: why Russia rejects the agreement between ISIS and the democratic forces of Syria

At the height of the Turkish intervention in Syria an amazing event happened. After taking the city Jarablus and the corresponding displacement of forces from there YPG The Arab forces of the city's local military council declared mandatory opposition to the Turkish army. A call for armed resistance to Ankara also came from the group "Khmeimim" Syrian opposition. According to Mace Credit, “no matter what this operation is called, no matter what its justification, it is an aggression against the sovereignty of Syria. This is intrusion and interference. Türkiye has historically intervened constantly; if she had not interfered, there would have been no conflict between the Arabs and Kurds. Relying on our friends abroad, on our allies, on everything international organizations, we must put pressure on Turkey. Of course, we need armed resistance to this invasion.”

Thus, the situation indicates that, despite a sufficient number of militants SSA of different stripes in the midst of Turkish expansion into Syria, not all opponents Assad support Turkish ambitions. In fact, the future hatchet of war in this direction has already been buried.
Due to the fact that the main blows of Turkey fall on the Kurds, it is worth considering the latest Interesting Facts. Recently, FSA groups representing Arabs in SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), openly sided with Turkey.

According to reports in in social networks, leader Liwa at-Tahrir- Arabic component Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - Muhammad Kafr Zita and part of his brigade crossed into Turkish territory and capitulated. Kafr Zita made an audio message in which he stated that Liwa Suwar al-Raqqa And Quwwat al-Sanadid(Shummar tribal militia) unhappy with the alliance with YPG. Liwa at-Tahrir was formed in Ras Ain for the war against ISIS*. She was the first to enter into an alliance with SDF in September 2014. They went over to the side of Turkey and the FSA Jabhat Suvar Suriya(“Syrian Revolutionary Front”), Liwa Ahrar al-Raqqa(“League of Free Raqqa”), Harakat Hazm And Jabhat al-Haqq. Liwa Ahrar al-Raqqa handed over to the SSA five villages in the region Ain Issa. Ain Issa is located 10 km from the front line with ISIS*. Minimum 50 fighters Liwa at-Tahrir are in Jarablus and are now fighting on the side of the FSA. Liwa at-Tahrir joined SDF in March and previously was part of the group Jaysh al-Salam, together with Liwa al-Jihad. Leader of Liwa al-Tahrir Abu Muhammad and 100 of his fighters surrendered to the Turkish army. It is noteworthy that Jabhat Suvar Suriya sometimes called "al-Nusra division in Raqqa" - before Raqqa was captured ISIS*.

It looks like the SDF project has come to an end.

What happened now with the FSA units already had precedents. For example, accusations by Arab tribes against the Kurds of ethnic cleansing: the memory of the July clashes between Liwa Suwar al-Raqqa and the YPG is fresh in our minds. According to media reports, the conflict arose as a result of the Kurds accusing the Arab group of collaborating with ISIS*; the incident was extinguished, but the residue remained. If we assume that such cooperation did exist, then it was probably a radical response to “Kurdization” northern Syria. However, the paradox is that back in March of this year, in an interview with the Al-Monitor Internet portal, the commander of the Suwar al-Raqqa faction under the pseudonym Abu Issa in the already mentioned interview with the portal Al-Monitor When asked about oppression by the Kurds, he stated “that he had heard similar stories, but had not seen any evidence.”

It is also worth mentioning the fact that other units were convicted SSA(pro-Turkish orientation) to this organization for excessive connections with the Kurds from the YPG. Which followed during the spring period of clashes between the Kurds and Turkey on the border. (The incidents mentioned took place six months before Erdogan’s decision to enter Syria).

So what is the reason for the crisis in the country?SDF? Is this the work of agents of Turkey and the USA? Or, probably, someone will blame Damascus for this, since the Assad government naturally has a negative attitude towards the emergence of a Kurdish enclave in the north of the country. For conspiracy theorists there is also an option with agents ISIS (Daesh)*: supposedly hidden cells eliminate their enemies from within this region. However, objectively speaking, the situation in which the “Democratic Forces of Syria” found themselves emerged from the very beginning, since an attempt to solve problems with simple “Sovietism” is not a successful solution.

What was meant by creationSDF? Leaders of Kurds, local tribes and units SSA created a military-political council with the aim of stabilizing the tense situation in northern Syria and countering ISIS (Daesh) militants*. This association found a positive response among the Americans: they even started talking about the direct participation of Washington itself in the creation of this political council, but without exaggeration it is worth saying that the United States, through the Kurdish lobby, only supported the influential part of the Kurdish component in this device. The initiative for the association was local - from all interested parties and representatives of the region.

So what are the reasons for the failure of a seemingly fairly stable new strength in Syria? The fact is that regional ambitions among the Kurdish dominant part in SDF overcame the ideas of coexistence with Arab society in the form of local councils. Moreover, the Kurds did not expect that the FSA units would constantly turn a blind eye to the Kurdization of the area. Also, despite the PR SDF in the media regarding “fair equality on the ground”, conflicts between armed groups of Kurds and Arabs were still present (for example, in November 2015, when Liwa Suwar al-Raqqa united with Arab tribes in Jabhat Suwar al-Raqqa against the actions of aggressive actions Kurds in relation to local Arab population northern Syria, the conflict was later resolved).

There is also external factor: for example, murder by ISIS Khalid al-Bashir, leader of the Bakara tribe Deir ez-Zor, which was the link connecting the Kurdish militia with their tribe. At the same time he was the commander in SDF . With his murder, the Democratic Forces lost one of their key representatives, which significantly complicated the situation within the organization.

The showdown between the Arab tribes and the Kurds also contributed. For example, in mixed regions Aleppo (Aleppo) And Jazira representatives of the Bakara tribes, oriented towards Sheikh Bashir, openly conflict with the Kurds from YPG . Sheikh Bashir after escaping to Turkey is a leader "Council of Arab Tribes of Syria", opposed to Assad. The sheikh's activities include the creation of armed groups in an ethnically mixed city Ras al-Ain V Hasake near the Turkish border. Yes, cities Hasake And Kamyshli located near the borders of Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan, became an arena of struggle between some Arab tribes and the Kurds. Which, by the way, indicates Turkish participation in undermining the activities SDF . In response to fighting from the tribes and Kurds fromYPGattempts by other tribes and noble Kurds to create councils in order to avoid conflicts were unsuccessful. Tribalism and Kurdish ambitions turned out to be stronger than the desire to create a safe zone and achieve at least some kind of stabilization.

Another external factor is the United States. After tacit support for the Turkish intervention, FSA units in the camp SDF Are you seriously thinking about your future: to be in the trenches with the Kurds or to lay down your arms and go to the other side (to Turkey)? Most of FSA members chose the latter. IN in this case another crack has emerged among the “democrats”, namely: the unpreparedness of certain components of the system SDF by virtue of various reasons to go with “comrades,” as they say, “to the last.” The conclusion to be drawn here is that, in the opinion of defectors from the FSA, the project itself SDF was not an ideal for which it was worth sacrificing something. But even here it appears interesting point. The fact is that the aggression of ISIS* forced many different forces to enter into an alliance, which, in fact, led to the creation SDF . However, Turkey's aggression split the “democratic forces.” Ankara’s money (banal bribery) and the use of Turkey’s brand as “the defender of democracy, Sunnis and fighters against terrorism” play a role here. And it doesn’t matter anymore what the fact is SDF disappeared, and the Turks were the winner (let me remind you that the Turkish side from the first day of its creation SDF expressed her protest in a strict form).

Returning to the States, you should know about the program CIA, during which there was full preparation certain FSA groups in order to counter ISIS*. There are corresponding official statements about this from the State Department (and, according to unofficial ones, these FSA groups trained against Assad’s forces). The program was carried out back in 2014, and, if you remove the window dressing and “well-behaved” attempts of the United States to explain its task, then in reality everything was limited to the supply of new weapons to the FSA units and funding (example: in 2015, the Liwa Suwar al-Raqqa group announced that it had received military equipment from the States). Now, in fact, with the opening of the Turkish front against the Kurds and their allies, representatives of the FSA, who received funding and weapons from the States, openly sided with Ankara. Which, naturally, did not please the overseas power. After a discussion between Ankara and Washington about the latter’s connection with the attempted “coup” and negotiations on future fate Gülen Kurdish issue, which has always exacerbated disagreements between the elites of partners in NATO, now the question of supporting the so-called “moderate opposition” will arise, and competition will arise for control over it. Thus, the damaged relations between Turkey and the United States will take on another dimension of political dispute. At this rate, maybe we really will witness new page in the relationship between the two countries, only with a minus sign - which for the Ummah, naturally, is a plus. In this case, creation and disappearance SDF truly had a religious and philosophical meaning.

P. S.

As for Liwa Surwar al-Raqqa, it is absolutely clear that the group defines its actions as an attempt to “survive.” Many FSA units have been guided by this logic since the first day of the conflict. It is not surprising that after an alliance with the Kurds, a subsequent change in orientation towards Turkey, there may well be at least a temporary, but alliance with ISIS*, and it will all end with the infusion of its forces into the Syrian army, or into tribal militias controlled by Damascus. Some may be indignant, but for the Middle East, this, as they say, is “normal.”

Operation Wrath of the Euphrates, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), supported by the International Coalition, has reached the final stage in the operation to liberate Raqqa, which is the de facto capital of the Islamic State ( prohibited in the Russian Federation - approx. ed.).

US-led forces expanded their zone of control from the village of al-Hamrat in the eastern Raqqa countryside to the village of al-Salhabiya in the west. She also advanced 25 kilometers to Raqqa, liberating many settlements in the northern countryside, thereby blocking the militants from the north. The city is surrounded on three sides, with the exception of the southern direction, which remains open towards the desert.

The Syrian Democratic Forces are located three kilometers north of the city of Raqqa. Syrian elite forces, together with the SDF, seized control of a gas processing plant in the north-west of the city. The Raqqa Revolutionary Front, part of the SDF, raised the flag of the Syrian revolution on Al-Bayya Hill in the northeast of the city. In addition, the SDF managed to expel ISIS militants from the village of Kdeiran in the west, and also took control of Al-Mansour in the north, as a result of which all roads to the city of Raqqa were cut off for militants. ISIS fighters have no choice but to try to cross the river in the south in boats in search of support and supplies, which means a delay in their movements. In addition, drones monitor 24/7 routes through which terrorists could exit Raqqa, including the Euphrates River.

As the month of Ramadan began, the Wrath of the Euphrates campaign, with the help of American B-52 bombers, fired dozens of missiles into the city, causing Raqqa to become a living hell. American and British artillery stationed at a sugar refinery north of the city strike the city. The civilian population of Raqqa is in a state of panic, fear and confusion. Civilians are caught in the trap of war as ISIS prevents them from leaving the city and the international coalition attacks missile strikes. The humanitarian situation in Raqqa has deteriorated significantly due to the lack of medical personnel, medicines and a complete power cut two days ago, as well as a lack of fuel and flour.

Civilians were killed in airstrikes during Ramadan. Many were injured and more than 35 people died, including entire families, due to the collapse of buildings. People began burying the dead in public parks due to the difficulty of accessing the cemetery, which is located in the line of fire.

« Islamic State" tries to deny defeat and last attempt To boost the morale of its fighters, on the first day of Ramadan, it executed two people in a city market, claiming that they were soldiers of the Syrian Democratic Forces. In addition, ISIS militants staged a march through the city streets with shooting to celebrate the capture of the city of Marawi in the Philippines by Islamic State militants, believing that this victory was given by Allah, who would compensate for their losses.

ISIS reminds shopkeepers to only deal in dirhams and dinars, warning them to beware paper money, although at the same time it is allowed to deal with dollars when it comes to oil and taxes.

© AP Photo, Militant Website, File ISIS militants (banned in the Russian Federation) during a parade in the city of Raqqa

According to information received from Raqqa, a deal has been struck between SDF and ISIS forces under which Islamic State fighters and their families will be given safe passage to leave Raqqa and head to the south of the country. A spokesman for the Syrian Democratic Forces denies the existence of any agreement. Nevertheless, data from the scene indicate its existence, especially since transactions of this kind already existed before. Islamic State fighters will hand over the Euphrates River dam and the city of Tabqa to the Syrian Democratic Forces after the deal.

This will facilitate the start of the negotiation process. Local tribal leaders are fleeing areas liberated by SDF fighters. There are rumors that some influential tribes who joined ISIS militants have laid down their arms and shaved their beards because they were guaranteed safety. In addition, there is information about surveillance of ISIS fighters in areas controlled by the SDF and camps for internally displaced persons.

In turn, Russia issued threats to destroy a convoy of ISIS militants heading south. Since Russia is not a party to this agreement, it will continue to fight terrorism.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that on May 25 Russian aviation attacked columns of ISIS militants moving from Raqqa towards Syrian Palmyra after concluding an agreement with the SDF. Thus, Russia made it clear that it does not recognize the agreement between ISIS and the SDF, and also showed its reluctance to give the United States an easy victory in Raqqa. However, Russia does not want the war to be fought at the expense of civilian casualties. However, Moscow does not want to hear about agreements between the SDF and ISIS that guarantee the exit of ISIS militants from the city and is seeking to get rid of them in Raqqa so that they do not gain a foothold in the Syrian desert.

The spread of ISIS in the desert will cause another war, and the Russians do not want to fight in the desert because they are looking for an easy victory over the militants. In warfare in the desert there can be no winners and losers. It will be more like a war of attrition for government forces and units people's militia, as it has happened before. Thus, ISIS became " hot potatoes”, which the parties pass to each other. All this data suggests that Raqqa acts as a playing field for regional and international forces, whose actions could lead to the destruction of the city and the destruction of its inhabitants as the price of victory. This area is open for scoring in this game.

US Defense Secretary James Mattis said the casualties included civilian population in Syria are inevitable. This goes against every value that Americans said they would fight for. The horror of this statement is that it opens the way for the unhindered destruction of people under the pretext of “vital factor” and “collateral damage”.

ISIS is left with little time and options: either continue to fight an already lost battle or head south along the safe passage towards the desert that the International Coalition and the SDF have deliberately left for the militants. In addition, they may head towards other Syrian areas or Iraqi Al-Anbar to create a new headquarters for the organization. In any case, the Al-Badiya region will be the site of concentration of the Islamic State’s forces if the militants lose control of Raqqa.

The US needs to take action decisive action and then, perhaps, within a few days they will be able to complete the operation in Raqqa.

InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.

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